Siberian winter may predict U.S. forecast
By Brian K. Sullivan, Bloomberg
Snow falling over Siberia is raising the prospect for frigid temperatures in New York come January.
Enlarge image Snow in Siberia
The weather half a world from Central Park can set off atmospheric events that result in icy air descending from the North Pole in December and January, driving U.S. temperatures down and natural gas and heating oil use up, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmosphere & Environmental Research in Lexington, Mass.
“It’s the best winter predictor that we have,” Cohen said in a telephone interview. “We haven’t made a forecast yet, but we’re watching it closely and the snow cover has definitely been above normal so far.”
The more ground covered by snow across northern Europe and Asia at the end of October, the greater the chances of triggering a phenomenon known as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. That would flood North America, Europe and East Asia with polar air and possibly erect a blocking effect in the North Atlantic that would bottle up the cold in the U.S.
In September, 2.36 million square kilometers (911,000 square miles) of northern Europe and Asia were covered by snow, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. That compared with the 1981-2010 mean of 1.5 million.
“It’s running well above normal,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, a commercial forecaster in Bethesda, Maryland. “Through the last week of September, it’s the highest snow total in Eurasia since 1977.”
More signs of Global Warming, right? NOT.
More signs of wild swings in the weather either way!
Higher ocean levels and drastic swings in what we have come to see as normal weather patterns ARE part of the accepted possibilities in the global warming model.
Like it or not, believe it or not, the atmosphere is increasing in carbon dioxide content which is known to trap heat.
The “warming” adjective is an average value, and has little to do with what we see looking out our windows in Tahoe on any given day. If you read the scientific literature and data however, there is a lot of evidence that our beloved Sierra is getting less snow than in the past, and that the elevation which defines alpine environment is rising,
We still do not totally understand global atmospherics and may never, as it is a dynamic system not lending itself to detailed predictions.
A.B still doesn’t seem to know the difference between climate and weather, yet felt compelled to comment on it…..oh well, one never wants facts and observation to get in the way of opinion…
Just to corroborate some of the comments (but not others), the reason the term “climate change” was chosen over “global warming” is as stated: “warming” is not the only variation in a “changing climate” – fluctuations of any intensity will upend what is normal, and there will be serious repercussions of many kinds.
As this report focuses on the Arctic, the Chinook winds of western Canada (Alberta meets the Canadian Rockies) serves as an apt example, as one of these series of winds can “change” across a 20-40 degree span in just a few hours, resulting in Canada’s highest suicide rate – as human emotions come into play. . .
Those who are in such a hurry to disclaim any outcome of climate change due to an ideological opinion will be the hardest hit – when they find out otherwise. . .