Climate change to bring rain, floods to Tahoe
Scientists are adamant climate change is already affecting Lake Tahoe. Photos/LTN
By Kathryn Reed
Tahoe’s isn’t likely to be barren anytime soon, but the type of moisture it receives in the future will be in the form of rain instead of snow, according to scientists.
That’s one outcome of climate change.
This in turn has consequences such as storage issues, flooding, more dry days than wet, and the increased threat of fire.
All of this was outlined during a climate change workshop hosted by the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board at Lake Tahoe Community College on Jan. 15.
By 2050 the average snowpack for the Sierra is expected to be half of what it is now, according to Mike Dettinger, with the U.S. Geological Society and Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
“With more rain, less snow, and larger storms it all comes together that the flood risk goes up in the Sierra,” Dettinger told the crowd of more than 60 people.
The meeting was one day before NOAA said 2014 was the 38th straight year with global annual temperatures above average.
Dettinger pointed out the last time California had colder than average years was from 1975-79.
Most models point to a trend of temperatures rising. This means the snow level will rise as well. That is why those living at lake level, and even many ski slopes in the Tahoe area, will see rain instead of white stuff.
Arlan Nickel with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said it may be time for agencies to look at when they release water so it better coincides with runoff and need. Peak runoff today is in May, but that date keeps moving up and is eventually expected to be in April.
With Lake Tahoe accounting for half of the Truckee basin’s water storage, he would like evaporation to be studied more.
While he didn’t mention it at this week’s talk, his agency along with scientists from the Desert Research Institute in Reno, and officials from the California Department of Water Resources this month placed a floating weather station at Folsom Lake with the intention of gathering data about evaporation.
DWR officials admit evaporation is a missing piece of information in the bigger water picture.
Geoff Schladow, director of the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center, is worried that dead zones are being created in Tahoe because the lake is not mixing like is used to. At 100 meters in 2014, that was the shallowest Lake Tahoe had mixed since records have been kept.
The mixing of water from the bottom of the lake to the top brings oxygen to all levels.
Without the mixing, ecosystems can be affected, heavy metals in the sediment become soluble, which can affect human health, fish die and other issues arise.
Lake Tahoe is not unique to these dead zones. Schladow said it is occurring throughout the world.
Schladow believes the models scientists have been using need to be updated because conditions are changing, and the data and assumptions from 10 years ago are outdated.
After the scientists spoke those attending were broken into groups to further discuss climate change and Lake Tahoe.
Lahontan is going to take the information from the workshop, compile a report and make recommendations to the regional board about potential policy changes or new policy.
I’ve seen predictions that the snow line will be around 8000 feet within 100 years. I guess Homewood might have a long mtn bike season. Heavenly might only have the top of the mtn open.
Yep. 2014 was the hottest year on record. The 10 warmest years have all come after 1998. 2014 saw 400ppm CO2 levels maintained; the first time since at least about 1 million years ago. Not only are homo sapiens damaging the biosphere, homo sapiens are damaging genetic diversity via species extinction, home sapiens are damaging forests and soils and homo sapiens are damaging basic biogeochemical processes and cycles on Earth.
“One of the most serious consequences of our actions is global warming brought about by rising levels of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. The danger is that the temperature increase may become self-sustaining, if it hasn’t done so already.
One can see from space how the human race has changed the Earth. Nearly all of the available land has been cleared of forest and is now used for agriculture or urban development. The polar icecaps are shrinking and the desert areas are increasing. At night, the Earth is no longer dark, but large areas are lit up. All of this is evidence that human exploitation of the planet is reaching a critical limit.” Stephen Hawking 2007
Hope all the local ski resorts sent representatives to the conference. The Pentagon and insurance companies are taking global warming very seriously. Its time for us to take it seriously too.
PS If scientists and analysts in the Pentagon and insurance industry don’t get people interested perhaps the words of the Pope will bring a new perspective.
Rock4tahoe, Your comment on climate change was very good and the quote from Stephen Hawking was a nice addition.
We may be too far beyond the tipping point, but at least we have to try! OLS
Just curious…is this model their following the same that predicted the storm of the decade recently?
BO. It isn’t one climate change model but various climate change models on different continents. Remember, climate and weather are very different terms.
Regardless of global warming or not, right about now I would take a wet climate for a while. Fill up the Lake and reservoirs in the West. It would be a good thing.
dumbfounded, Yes! I would rather have snowfall for a long period of run off, but if we get rain to fill the lakes and resavoirs that’s a good thing. That would have to be ALOT of rain. If no rain, the folks downhill from us are going to be in a real bad bad way!
Our fire danger in the state and right here in the sierras will be extreme. At this point I’d take any type of precipitation. OLS
At least one of these scientists works very closely with TRPA and is setting the stage for environmental agencies to re-gear for more programs, fees and administration.