Expert: Warm winter with rain for Tahoe
By Kathryn Reed
INCLINE VILLAGE – El Nino is already here. Now it’s a matter of waiting to see what the ramifications of it will be to the greater Lake Tahoe area.
This particular El Nino is on target to be comparable to 1982-83 and 1997-98 – the biggest ones in the last 100 years.
This was some of the information Kelly Redmond, regional climatologist for the Western United States with the Desert Research Institute, shared with more than 150 people during a lecture at the Tahoe Environmental Research Center in Incline Village on Oct. 29.
El Nino is the warming of the ocean waters. Everything else is a consequence of an El Nino. They tend to peak in the winter.
During El Ninos the jet stream drops south because the atmosphere reacts to the warming ocean. More moisture goes to Southern California, often leaving the Northwest dry. The Lake Tahoe-Reno area is often bypassed in normal El Nino years.
One thing that is different in the ocean now compared to the previous two large El Ninos are the two blobs sitting off the west coast of North America. Redmond said in his career he has not seen anything like this before. How they might affect El Nino is unknown.
El Nino is not a sure bet to create a banner snow year. Photo/LTN file
“There is little to suggest that a big El Nino causes more snow,” Redmond said. “We tend to get more extreme events.”
While moisture of any kind is welcome after four years of drought, if it comes in the form of rain, that could impact the local economy and water storage down stream. Tahoe is missing about a year’s worth of precipitation. That means it would take the equivalent of two year’s of wet stuff to make things normal.
Normal is a relative word for these parts. Redmond said this area has the most variable precipitation in the United States.
“It goes up and down tremendously,” he said while a chart depicting that fact was shown on the screen. “This is why you need reservoirs to balance things out.”
The models are also indicating this will be a warm winter, though not as warm as last year. This in turn will mean the snow line will be higher. More rain than snow is likely to be the end result.
“How the precipitation falls makes quite a bit of difference. Snow is free storage,” Redmond said. “There are 2½ to three Shasta dams worth of water just sitting there. It wasn’t there this year.”
Snow needs freezing overnight temperatures to keep its consistency. It needs a break from the melting sun. But that hasn’t been happening of late. The trend is that the overnight temps are steadily increasing. This is especially true in the spring.
Data from 1948-2015 for the months of October to March show the average freezing level in the basin being 8,700. Last winter it was 2,000 feet higher than that.
Reservoirs are hardly the answer to “balance things out.” We lose a tremendous amount of water every year due to surface evaporation off reservoirs. Perhaps we should invest those billions in new reservoir projects into managing healthy forests that filter and store water naturally.
The Tahoe Keys destroyed 50% of the Upper Truckee Marsh…lets talk about that! 50% people
50% is not a just a little slice of THE PRIMARY FILTER for the major water entering LAKE TAHOE.
The most environmentally damaging intrusion on Lake shore in HUMAN HISTORY!!
DO something about that!!! You never even talk about it….it’s like it’s not there!!!
LETS TALK ABOUT THE PEOPLE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT EVIRONMENTAL TRAVESTRY
Robin has a very valid point. So Robin, how do you propose to rectify the travesty of the Tahoe Keys? Please help me understand what can be done to solve the problem.
One thing I have always proposed is to ban motor vehicles from entering the basin. What do you think about that Robin?
Vail Colorado had(I haven’t been there for MANY MANY years:( parking garages on either end of town…right off the freeway with shuttles running into the village every few minutes. Reliable, regular shuttles every few minutes.
As far as The Keys goes you can’t put my solution in print…put the people responsible in jail.
Jail is a good place to think…not enough people go there…like sending bad actors at school home…suspend them? hell no!!!
Detain them and work them. Make them WORK..don’t turn them loose…that’s what they want.
WORK…put them to work!! Three hots and a cot they call it…well since we’re paying for it you must work for it.
the conservancy could buy back the Keys and turn it into a marsh.
instead of buying land to sell it to be turned into a 14 bedroom house.
instead of buying commercial property along Lake Tahoe blvd.
Chief, sounds good to me:)
However, maybe, while waiting for the conservancy, if the drought continues, which it well could, the KEYS will dry up!
I understand from the Jacques Cousteau group’s dive there are 200 ft tall trees down there with 100 ft or so of water over them so the Lake has not always been at the level it is at now. hmmm 1,645 ft deep??? there’s a ways to go before we actually run out of water.
NATURE DOES NOT RESPECT HUMAN CYCLES
I agree, the Tahoe Keys has caused significant environmental damage so we should ban motor vehicles from the Tahoe Basin. Does that really sound right to anyone?
The precedent in our law is that when damage has been done, it is usually the responsibility of those who caused the damage to pay for the damage. Unfortunately, the further reality is that our system of laws generally allows people to avoid that responsibility if they have enough money.
That is what appears to be the reality with the Tahoe Keys. The obvious remedy would be a project, paid for by the property owners in the Tahoe Keys, to restore the Upper Truckee Marsh. I won’t hold my breath.
Dumb…you would need to confer with the Vail people to find our how they do that. They have been successful. I haven’t been there for so many years I cannot speak to the state of affairs there now.
However, the ‘fractional residences’, time shares and 14 bedroom ‘single’ family homes ALL bring in VEHICLES and it is a BIG problem.
re: Tahoe Keys… the most environmentally damaging intrusion on Lake Shore in HUMAN HISTORY!! is more than significant.
Thanks for attending this presentation and your informative article about it.
No cars in the basin? What a crock of S^%$!!
I can name 26 gas stations from Cave Rock to Meyers that no longer exist. They were replaced by 2 new stations.
Most of the cars ran on leaded gas without catalytic converters or fuel injection. We had a year round population 30% lager than today and almost double the amount of tourists commercial jets warming up etc. Yet they claim conditions are worse?
If the GREENIES would stop lying and/or exaggerating it would be easier to believe their BS.
PS
I don’t think pencil pushers from sac and the bay area hauling their bikes and sup’s up to Tahoe in a one ton diesel truck are GREEN. Don’t even get me started on the carbon foot print of installing a yard of concrete for the GREEN sidewalks.
Article is about El Niño.
The Keys suck.
The earth is warming, caused and/or exacerbated by human CO2 emissions. Duh.
California Tahoe Conservancy is the only real hero for large scale change on the South Shore.
Lake Tahoe News Readers are easily confused.
Robin. It is not only the Tahoe Keys that was a development problem, there is Christmas Valley, Meyers, Lake Tahoe Golf Course, the “airport” and Barton Meadows too.
The Upper Truckee has been turned into a drainage ditch.
To really “restore” the Upper Truckee to what it once was would require more then just returning Tahoe Keys to a marsh at this point.
Also. With about 2000 homes in the Keys worth say $1 Million each. That would cost $2 Billion just to purchase the land.
Rock,
You are totally correct on all counts.
But and it’s a big butt,
THE MOST EVIRONMENTALLY DAMAGING INTRUSION ON LAKE SHORE IN…..”HUMAN HISTORY” !!!
Christ,
Give it up… The Tahoe Keys is not the biggest environmental disaster….it is only affecting Tahoe a 12 x 20 odd mile lake in the western US.
It the Keys is to go, how about wiping out Manhattan in New York?
The people responsible for the Keys are, for the most part dead and gone. The current owners don’t have to sell just because you nutcases think it should be wiped clean.
Crank- You got to start somewhere…everybody has to take care of their own little spot on the planet.
‘Shelter in place’ if you will. Keep calm and carry-on.
Speaking of Christ, well if all else fails the Keys will just dry up…1,645ft deep:) LOL yep, 1,645ft.
The Lake will still be here when all the INNOCENTS are dead also….start planning your gardens and backyards cause there won’t be any water behind your condo…I say sell now while selling is an option. You will soon have to give it away.
For the MOST part the people responsible for this disaster are dead and gone. That’s how you people get away with this screwing the ‘grandchildren’ over! Well it’s done now…so get over it!…move on!
You’re speaking to the wrong generation
Crank…when reference was made it was to that stinky little 12×22 pond as you put it.
The Tahoe Keys is the most damaging intrusion on LAKE SHORE in HUMAN HISTORY. LAKE TAHOE SHORE
Not the world! Unless you subscribe to such theories.
I think we would all like a redo on the Keys and if we really wanted to get it right we should have a redo on all of Lake Tahoe as it should have been a national park early on preventing any of the development and us bring here. That being said we are where we are. Where do we focus our efforts on improving the environment of the region? Near shore. roads and erosion the built environment, other places?
in 100 years the entire Lake will be filled with the ***** that is coming out of the Keys.
Atomic…Your comments were just GR* UNTIL you had to add *Lake Tahoe News readers are easily confused.
That was totally unnecessary and probably why no one takes your comments seriously
Chief-Unfortunately, you’re probably right based on what I’ve seen in the lakes in Minnesota.
Robin, As a teacher, wouldn’t you agree that your last sentence is the definition of a ‘vague generalization’.
Please, speak for yourself and not for everyone on this thread.
Yesterday was a record breaking 69 degrees, here.
Let’s hope this El Nino isn’t like ’97. The flooding was extensive and you can still see the effect.
Atomic…huh? What are you talking about? What do you mean?
Isee,-*As an ex-teacher, I do not take my last sentence as a definition of a ‘vague generalization’.
Atomic…”Lake Tahoe News readers are easily confused”. Nothing vague about that in my opinion not speaking for anyone else. I am a Lake Tahoe News reader…I also read other news papers in the area.
I think Atomic’s comment to include…readers of Lake Tahoe News are ‘easily confused’, NOT necessary and well ‘punkish’.
Did you write that on a phone? Anyone else find their writing unclear and disorganized?
“That was totally unnecessary and probably why no one takes your comments seriously”
Uh huh….
It seems that Dillingham built the Keys back in the early 60’s before the City of South Lake Tahoe was incorporated. Some people are checking Dillingham out re initial investors before 1965 to try and get it straight who did what in the day that got us here.
I moved here in 1964 just after the ‘suspicious’ death of Lewellyn Gross, wife of Harvey Gross at the time, and right in the middle of all the drama surrounding the formation of the City.
With the advent of the internet there is a new wave of Cold Case sleuths that are searching the planet for cases and like I mentioned earlier Lake Tahoe, especially the South Shore, is a HOT BED OF COLD CASES.
With the increase in tourist/travelers, from the UK especially, questions abound about the HISTORY of Lake Tahoe are numerous!
Do not shoot the messenger people, these youngsters! and believe me I consider 40 and 50 year olds YOUNG:)
have the wherewithal to look into the past but they do not understand the circumstances of the era.
Hence my new book…”HEAD DOWN, MOUTH SHUT, DUMMY UP AND DEAL”.
You ‘locals’ can expect more inquiries and intrusions into the past and the searchers are particularly interested in the nefarious Mob connections with the SAHARA which opened in summer of 1965.
I am interested in the 50 year anniversary series Lake Tahoe News is going to present.