Seasonal forecasts unreliable indicators
Long term forecasts are not all that reliable, according to experts. Photo Copyright 2017 Carolyn E. Wright
By Benjamin Spillman, Reno Gazette-Journal
Skiers and snowboarders struggling with the decision to buy a season pass or book a destination shouldn’t expect much help from seasonal weather forecasts.
That’s because forecasts that lay odds on temperature and precipitation months in advance are notoriously unreliable.
Just look back to November of 2016 when the forecast map for December through February, the heart of the ski season, showed “EC” over much of California and Nevada, representing an equal chance for greater-than-normal or less-than-normal precipitation.
“Another way you could put that is equally clueless,” said Chris Smallcomb, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Reno.