Climate change could bring twice as many big El Niños
By Sammy Roth, Desert Sun
Scientists have long wondered whether rising global temperatures will lead to an increase in intense El Niño events, like the one that could bring major storms to Southern California this winter. According to a groundbreaking study published Monday, the answer is a resounding, “Yes.”
If human beings don’t slow their emission of planet-warming greenhouse gases, extreme El Niños could nearly double in frequency — from once every 28 years to once every 16 years on average, the new study found. That could spell trouble for California, which experienced mudslides, flooding and $500 million in damage during an intense El Niño in the late 1990s.
The idea that global warming will lead to stronger El Niños makes perfect sense, said Bill Patzert, a NASA climatologist who was not involved in the study. That’s because El Niños are driven largely by warming water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which will get especially hot as the world temperatures rise.
An increase in extreme El Niño events will probably be accompanied by an increase in extreme La Niña events, which lead to dry winters in California.
This is good news, I think. Perhaps the many terminal lakes in the Great Basin will grow in size and offset some of the feared rises in ocean levels. There is a lot of capacity there and in similar basins across central Asia and Africa.
“To once every 16 years on average”
81/82, 82/83, 92/93, 93/94/, 94/95, then the one in the late 90s,…… I counted 6+ 1 projected full blown direct hit El ninos for No. Cal in 34 years.
“Extreme LA ninas that lead to dry winters in California”
The last LA nina in 2011 had Heavenly and Squaw resorts boasting the deepest snow ever recorded in the history of their resorts. Not to mention the weekly rain storms during the spring.
Is the sky falling or has it already fallen.
Science is politics, politics is science so who do you believe?
“By Gosh” sounds a bit skeptical, but has the right to be. . . out of the last 65 El Ninos, only two have had significant moisture, both of which affected Tahoe – the very early ’80’s, & the mid-’90’s. . .so as “wishful thinking” takes hold, just remember Bob Dylan: “You don’t need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows”. . .as we’ll all just have to look out the window each day. . .
Talk about screwing up someone’s head. Wonder if these are the same drought propaganda people that can’t tell the difference between so Cal and no Cal weather.
Now comes the blob situation that apparently causes a high pressure area around Seattle causing drought.