El Nino watch — Pacific Ocean abnormally warm
By Brian K. Sullivan, BloombergBusiness
The Pacific Ocean is warm. Very warm.
Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced temperatures reached 5.6 Fahrenheit above normal in a key section of the Pacific called Nino 3.4, touching off a Twitter typhoon among some El Nino watchers alarmed that they were so high. Monday, the agency said readings had edged up to 3.1 degrees above normal.
It’s probably too early to add this to the list of signs of the impending apocalypse. Instead, it’s likely just an indicator that the sea-surface component of El Nino is getting ripe, said Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
The weekly readings “are less reliable” than their monthly counterparts, which tend to be a bit cooler, he said. And El Nino isn’t just sea-surface temperatures: It’s also atmospheric changes that upend global weather patterns.
Less than 100 years of temperature science in the ocean and they can tell us it’s abnormal? I don’t think so. Show me the data when we have 10,000 years worth of temperatures to see the fluctuations .
Scripts Institute predicted the full blown El ninos of 81/82 and 82/83. These were seriously wet winters that up until that time may have set a record for consecutive wet seasons from the bay area to Tahoe.
I’m guessing these 2 wet seasons were the start of significant, sustained climate change for no. Cal.
El ninos of the past were very warm storms. Snow turning to rain, slush, ect…All the storms so far this wet season appear to be la nina type frigid storms.
Don’t forget about the “blobs” that are being seen for the first time. They are located farther north and their effect is unknown.
the value of 100 years of observation vs 10,000??…..(1) some folks should become more familiar with statistical sampling and how many measurements you need before you have a reasonable chance that you are looking at something significant. Plus consider the effects of a change in climate? If it becomes even moderately different, this means a lot of social chaos – waiting 10,000 yrs to decide what may be happening is like seeing smoke come out of the window of a neighbor’s house but waiting to see flames before you call the fire department
(2) weather records are not the only thing to look at historical weather….you have indications of prevailing weather over the last several centuries by looking at plant and animal distribution, fossils, ice core samples, etc…and by the way in CA it’s 150 years of records now, not 100
last comment – the fact we have had cold storms coming out of the arctic doesn’t speak anything to the possible effects of an el nino over the course of the rest of the winter.
but hey, some folks probably still think the earth is flat! :)
Ummm Bluewire, it’s called Ice Core Sampling from Antarctica (for a start) that goes back almost 1 million years. Heard of tree rings that go back thousands or years? Sediment core sampling in bays or marsh areas? Radiocarbon dating?