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Long-term forecast: Dry in California


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By Matt Weiser, Sacramento Bee

Despite a hint of rain and snow in the forecast next week, the region and California as a whole can expect a third dry winter ahead.

That’s according to an “experimental” long-range forecast released this week by the California Department of Water Resources. The forecast covers the 2014 water year, which runs from Oct. 1, 2013, through Sept. 30, 2014. It calls for “mostly dry conditions for most of California,” with dry conditions being especially likely in the south state.

While moisture is in the forecast next week for Tahoe, it may be a dry winter overall. Photo/Susan Wood

While moisture is in the forecast next week for Tahoe, it may be a dry winter overall. Photo/Susan Wood

The forecast was done for the state by Klaus Wolter, a Ph.D. meteorologist and research associate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Wolter made a similar dry prediction for the state last year, which at first appeared “destined for failure,” he said.

In a hint that suggests a similar outcome this year, the near-term forecast calls for a major change in the weather for Lake Tahoe and Northern California on Monday. A storm is expected to drop out of the Pacific Northwest, bringing a chance of rain to the Valley through Wednesday and snow in the Sierra Nevada through Thursday.

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