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In virtual mega-drought, Calif. avoids defeat


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By Bettina Boxall, Los Angeles Times

A few years ago a group of researchers used computer modeling to put California through a nightmare scenario: Seven decades of unrelenting mega-drought similar to those that dried out the state in past millennia.

“The results were surprising,” said Jay Lund, one of the academics who conducted the study.

The California economy would not collapse. The state would not shrivel into a giant, abandoned dust bowl. Agriculture would shrink but by no means disappear.

Traumatic changes would occur as developed parts of the state shed an unsustainable gloss of green and dropped what many experts consider the profligate water ways of the 20th century. But overall, “California has a remarkable ability to weather extreme and prolonged droughts from an economic perspective,” said Lund, director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.

The state’s system of capturing and moving water around is one of the most expansive and sophisticated in the world. But it is based on a falsehood.

“We built it on the assumption that the last 150 years is normal. Ha! Not normal at all,” cautioned paleoclimate expert Scott Stine, a professor emeritus of geography and environmental science at Cal State East Bay.

“The weather record that we tend to depend on in California for allocating water … is based on about 150 years of really quite wet conditions when you look back at, say, the last 8,000 years or so,” Stine said.

He found evidence of two extreme droughts in ancient tree stumps rooted in the state’s modern lake beds. The trees could have grown only when shorelines beat a long retreat during medieval mega-droughts lasting a century or more.

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Comments (7)
  1. legal beagle says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    It is the fault of global warming, global cooling, and the fighting in New Zealand.

  2. Justice says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    The missing part of this is the unreported dramatic result and toll on resources by the unlawful entry by and the adding of millions illegally in the state and country using the resources like water and welfare like they are unlimited gifts from taxpayers. With little to no enforcement of the immigration laws the population growth and use of scarce resources is unlimited and all for strict political reasons from the desire of this state and federal government to increase dependency. People should prepare to see the effects of the drought in their water bills and dry wells and prepare to pay and pay and have no representation from the likes of “water tunnel vision” Moonbeam who has no care or concern of what the voters want. This applies to all levels of the state government and will be shown by the drought, the welfare state economy, and the unbelievable risk of the spreading and developing foreign diseases and viruses being brought in by an intentional borderless liberal fantasy nation with a complete lack of competent leadership at all levels.

  3. rock4tahoe says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    Only Justice the phycho could equate Drought with Imigration. LOL! When Reagan himself gave amnesty to 3 million imigrants in the 80’s.

  4. observer says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    Justice has no knowledge of or interest in history. It shows in everything he/she writes. As Rock points out, even the conservative touchstone Ronnie Reagan was a guilty party 30 odd years ago.

    It is hard to tell if Justice is angry at the State of California, the Feds,Both or just irrationally angry at everything.

  5. Dogula says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    You guys are telling HALF the story on Reagan. He allowed the amnesty, with the understanding that the border would hence be sealed. The Democrats, as usual, welched on their part of the deal.
    It’s disingenuous to say Ronald Reagan was guilty of anything in that situation, except of trusting sleazy characters.

  6. Justice says - Posted: October 7, 2014

    Population levels and their dramatic effect on resources for this state are one measure of the use of finite resources such as water. As to Reagan’s compromise with the Dems in 1986, it was a mistake, he did his part, the Dem’s never did, and he, Reagan regretted it. This shows what happens when politicians lie, there were an estimated three million illegally in the state then, now it is off the charts and concealed. So yes, the Dems were dishonest about securing the border, and Reagan fell for it. Moonbeam’s current actions and lack of make all of the past actions on the rule of law for immigration meaningless and makes the health, welfare, and finances of the state threatened.

  7. rock4tahoe says - Posted: October 20, 2014

    No, Reagan did not understand anything of the kind. He asked for and got more money for Border Patrols for two years and that was it. If he didn’t like the way the law was written he didn’t have to sign it. Stop with the whining already.